How the gauges are calculated.
Two formulas. Tap any component to see what goes into it.
Why two gauges
Most "energy sentiment" readings collapse the entire sector into one number. That number is dominated by the supermajors (XOM and CVX alone are ~40% of XLE), so it tracks integrated-major sentiment with E&P noise on top — and tells you very little about either separately.
This site separates the two: integrated majors with refining and dividend yield (defensive cash flow) on one side, pure-play E&P and oilfield services (commodity beta) on the other. They move together when oil is calm. They diverge sharply during real regime changes — which is when sentiment data actually matters.
Energy Majors gauge
15 integrated oil companies plus US refiners. Score is a weighted blend of three components on a 0–100 scale.
1 Momentum 50% Are the stocks above or below their recent trend?
How far above or below their 125-day average each stock is trading, averaged across the basket. Stocks well above their average score high (greed); stocks well below score low (fear).
Energy gets a wider scoring band than other sectors because oil-driven cycles make these stocks swing more than typical non-cyclical names.
2 Valuation 25% What multiple is the market paying for these earnings?
Median price-to-earnings ratio across the basket, with outliers removed (top and bottom 2 names dropped, anything outside 5–60x ignored as bad data).
Source: Finnhub. Uses normalized annual P/E that strips one-time charges, with TTM P/E as fallback.
3 Insider Activity 25% Are insiders actively trading their own stock?
How many of the 15 basket companies have had at least one insider transaction (SEC Form 4 filing) in the last 30 days. 0 companies active scores 0; 8 or more scores 100.
This is a proxy for engagement — when insiders are filing forms at all, it tends to correlate with active news cycles and inflection points.
E&P + Services gauge
23 names — 10 large independent E&P and 13 small/mid + oilfield services. Score blends four components.
1 Relative Strength vs Sector 40% Are pure-play E&P names beating the broad sector?
The 90-day return of pure-play E&P stocks (the XOP ETF) minus the 90-day return of the broad energy sector (the XLE ETF, which is dominated by XOM and CVX).
When pure-plays beat the broad sector, the higher-beta names are leading — a "risk-on" energy tape. When they lag, the market is favoring defensive integrated names.
2 Distance from 52-Week High 35% How far off their 52-week highs are these stocks trading?
The average distance each smaller E&P + services stock is trading below its 52-week high. Stocks near their highs score near 100; stocks down 50%+ score near 0.
This catches both ends of sentiment: deep drawdowns mean fear, fresh highs mean greed.
3 Breadth 15% How many stocks in the basket are in an uptrend?
The percentage of stocks trading above their own 50-day average. When 80%+ are participating, the rally has broad support; when only 30% are, the index might be propped up by a handful of large caps.
4 Oil Price Momentum 10% Is crude oil itself in an uptrend?
How far the WTI crude oil price is above or below its 125-day average.
This is a small but direct anchor — E&P earnings move with the oil price, so the price itself deserves weight independent of how the stocks have moved.
Supporting signals
Six things on the homepage that aren't the gauges themselves but feed your reading of them.
Clean Energy watch strip
A 6-name basket — NEE, ENPH, FSLR, RUN, BE, PLUG — measured as 30-day average return minus XLE's 30-day return.
This is a relative read, not a sentiment gauge. Clean energy moves on rates and policy (long-duration assets, IRA tax credits, residential solar dynamics) far more than on oil. The strip tells you whether the rotation is currently into or out of the energy-transition trade.
Commodity pulse
Five front-month futures from Yahoo Finance:
CL=FWTI Crude · headline US benchmarkBZ=FBrent Crude · global benchmark, US export proxyNG=FHenry Hub Nat Gas · US gas benchmarkRB=FRBOB Gasoline · refining margin inputHO=FHeating Oil · refining margin inputSpot price + 30-day change. Plus computed Brent–WTI spread and 3-2-1 crack spread (28×RB + 14×HO − CL). These are independent of equity sentiment — prices move on physical supply/demand and macro flows, not on how XOM or FANG are trading.
Inventory pulse
US commercial crude stocks (excluding SPR) sourced from EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Series ID: PET.WCESTUS1.W. Released every Wednesday at 10:30 AM ET (Thursday during US holiday weeks).
What's shown: latest reading, week-over-week change, and position vs the 5-year band for this week of the year. The band respects seasonality — stocks build in spring, draw down through summer driving season, build in fall, draw in winter heating. A flat moving average would miss that shape.
M&A pulse
Counts SEC 8-K filings from the 15 major energy companies over the last 90 days, sourced directly from EDGAR.
Each filing falls into one of two buckets:
The post-2024 wave of consolidation (XOM-Pioneer, CVX-Hess, COP-Marathon, FANG-Endeavor) was the dominant story for 18 months. Tracking new 8-Ks in real time tells you whether the wave is rolling forward or has crested.
Each filing also shows EDGAR's short description for context. Extracting target names and deal values from filing bodies is planned.
Catalyst calendar
Three sources, mixed:
Macro context (from macroread.com)
Three macro indicators sourced from macroread.com — a sister property tracking 10 macro signals daily. Three are directly relevant to energy:
The honest stuff
When this updates
Every business day after the US market close.
What this can't tell you
This is a sentiment dashboard — it shows what the market has been doing, not what it will do.
It won't:
- Predict tomorrow's oil price
- Tell you whether to buy or sell any specific stock
- Account for news that breaks after the last market close
Use it to understand the regime — are the two halves of energy aligned or diverging? Is sentiment extreme or mid-range? — not as a buy/sell signal.
Where the data comes from
All sources free and public.