What's the bifurcation thesis?

Integrated majors smooth out commodity cycles via downstream operations. Pure-play E&P names are leveraged bets on the oil price. A single sector reading collapses these very different drivers.

How is the Energy Majors gauge calculated?

50% momentum (basket avg % above 125-day MA), 25% valuation (trimmed median P/E mapped 8x→0, 16x→100), 25% insider activity (Form 4 filings count from SEC EDGAR).

How is the E&P gauge calculated?

40% relative strength (XOP 90-day return minus XLE 90-day return), 35% distance from 52-week high across the smid basket, 15% breadth (% above 50-day MA), 10% oil price momentum (WTI vs 125d MA).

Daily energy sector sentiment

The sector, led by the barrel.

Crude is the protagonist. Equities are leveraged plays on the barrel. Both halves of energy — defensive integrated majors and commodity-beta E&P — read off the same underlying, but rarely with the same intensity.

— tickers • — • Sources: Yahoo · SEC EDGAR · OPEC · EIA · Finnhub

WTI Crude · 1-year front-month

— /bbl

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52-week range

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Brent · 1-year——

Henry Hub Gas · 1-year——

Brent–WTI spread——

Sentiment bifurcation

How the equity market is voting on each side of the sector. The two halves don't always agree — when they don't, that's the signal.

Gauge 1 · Defensive Cash Flow

Energy Majors

15 integrated oil & refiners. Momentum + valuation + insider activity.

—/100

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125d Mom—

Median P/E—

Insider Active—

Gauge 2 · Commodity Beta

E&P + Services

24 producers & oilfield service names. Relative strength, breadth, oil momentum.

—/100

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Breadth ≥ 50d—

XOP/XLE—

WTI vs 125d—

Sentiment history

How the two gauges have moved over 90 days. Wide gaps between the lines are the bifurcation thesis at work — that's the signal.

Energy Majors E&P + Services

90 days · current divergence — pts

Sector heatmap

All 45 tickers grouped by basket, colored by 30-day performance. A quick visual scan of where the leaders and laggards are clustered.

Energy Majors · 15

Large E&P · 10

Small/Mid E&P + Services · 14

Clean Energy · 6

−10%+ −5% ~ 0% +5% +10%+

Today's leaders past 30d

Today's laggards past 30d

Clean Energy watch

Solar, fuel cells, and renewables-utility hybrids trade as energy on every exchange — but their drivers are rates and policy, not oil. Tracked separately as a relative-performance strip.

Clean
Energy
Watch

Pending Awaiting first data refresh.

NEE · ENPH · FSLR · RUN · BE · PLUG

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Basket vs XLE · 30d

M&A pulse

Big oil's view of independent E&P, drawn from SEC 8-K filings (Items 1.01 and 2.01) from the 15-name majors basket.

Material agreement filings · past 90 days

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8-K filings (Items 1.01 / 2.01) from majors

Recent filings

No filings yet
Waiting for first cron refresh

Catalyst calendar

Scheduled events that move oil prices and energy stocks. OPEC+ ministerial dates plus weekly EIA inventory reports.

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Awaiting first data refresh

The bifurcation thesis

Why this site has two gauges instead of one.

The defensive cash flow side

Integrated majors like XOM, CVX, COP, and the supermajors have refining, chemicals, and downstream marketing baked in. Their earnings smooth out the commodity cycle — when crude crashes, refining margins often expand. They pay sustainable dividends and trade like value stocks during oil weakness.

The commodity beta side

Pure-play E&P and oilfield services are essentially leveraged bets on the oil price. When WTI drops 10%, FANG or SLB drops more. They have no downstream cushion. The gauge here uses XOP-vs-XLE relative strength, distance from 52-week highs, basket breadth, and oil price momentum to capture how aggressively the market is pricing in commodity-driven upside.

Why a single "energy" reading misses both

When you read "energy stocks are in greed," you can't tell whether oil-sensitive E&P caught a bid on a Middle East headline or whether majors got bought for their dividend yield as rates fell. Those are completely different stories with different next moves. Two gauges expose which.

Common questions

What people ask before they trust a sentiment number.

Why does crude oil lead the homepage?

In energy, the underlying commodity is the protagonist. Equities are leveraged plays on the barrel. Healthcare has no equivalent (drug prices aren't fungible across companies). Energy is fundamentally about the barrel, so the page leads there.

How often does this update?

Every business day after US market close. Cron refresh fetches Yahoo prices, queries SEC EDGAR, and recomputes both gauges. The trend chart shows 90 days of formula-aligned history.

What does the Brent–WTI spread tell me?

Brent trading at a premium to WTI (positive spread) makes US crude exports economically attractive — refiners abroad pay Brent-linked prices, US producers sell at WTI-linked prices, and the gap is the export incentive. Wider spreads typically benefit US E&P names with Gulf Coast access.

Why isn't HES in the majors basket?

Hess Corporation was acquired by Chevron and delisted on July 18, 2025. Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD, acquired by ExxonMobil May 2024) and Marathon Oil (MRO, acquired by ConocoPhillips November 2024) are also excluded. The basket only contains tickers that currently trade.

Is this investment advice?

No. This is a sentiment dashboard built from public data. It tells you what the market has been doing, not what it will do.